Why You Should Be Bullish on These 3 Tech Trends
Some Fresh Thoughts as We Entrepreneurs Look for Value to Create
Good Morning. Today we are doing an atypical post and writing more broadly about technology trends you should be keeping an eye on.
While the world seems to delve into chaos with each passing day, there are likewise some monumental changes happening in technology. These changes come with massive opportunity. With that in mind, let’s zoom out and let me give you some ideas to incorporate into your business’s strategies.
Trend 1 - Bitcoin Lightning: A World Built on Value for Value
Quick preface: I know this will probably ruffle some feathers in the BowTied community. But I have a confession to make. I, BowTiedLaunch am a BTC maximalist.
Long story short: decentralization is everything. I don’t trust the ability of Vitalik or XRP or (spin the wheel) to stay neutral when there’s every incentive to put on The One Ring.
Trust Me Bro! I’ll Totally Destroy the One Ring. Just let me finish up this call with my pre-mine homies real quick and I’ll get right back to ya!
Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency I see that truly embraces decentralization, a hard limit on supply and stable monetary policy.
Bitcoin keeps it simple and honest. The way money should be.
Furthermore, there is a seriousness in the bitcoin community that is unparalleled by other coins. If you don’t believe me spend some time with people in each community and it will be immediately obvious who the professionals are and who are drug addled clowns.
Enter the Lightning Network
Until recently, the heavy criticism of Bitcoin has been that it cannot support “buying a coffee” in a reasonable time frame. The settlement time and transaction fees just don’t make sense at those low volumes for on chain payment.
Lightning shatters that criticism.
With the lightning network, millions of transactions per second move across the globe.
In amounts as low as hundreths of pennies.
All in a permissionless fashion.
Lightning is in its infancy and it is already making new business models possible.
Opportunities Abound
With the ability to collect micropayments and exchange value for value with mere software, new business models that were never possible before now become possible and those that were once ironclad become obsolete:
Microservices Behind a Paywall: do you have the best implementation of some esoteric but essential algorithm? Or maybe a kick ass generative AI model? Lightning makes it economical to shrink SaaS all the way down to the subroutine level. Lightning natively supports splits (sending payments to more than one recipient). This makes it possible for authors of code to make “royalties” and potentially lowers the barrier to entry for entrepreneurs who want to access the talents of good devs.
LNAuth: the same way lightning can be used for payments it can be used for Decentralized IDs. Simply sign messages and now websites don’t need your name/email to verify your humanity. This will be the start of the decay of the Surveillance Economy.
Podcasting 2.0 & General Value for Value (V4V): If you’re producing content it’s a no brainer. Direct relationship with your customers. No middlemen fees. Can’t be cancelled. All with code. On the consumer side: I can buy 1 article at a time or only get charged for how much I listen without having to worry about a recurring subscription I don’t want.
Spam Prevention: One of the original sins of the internet was that you couldn’t send payments. That fact invited spam as a business model. With lightning, it enables Chat Applications to block spam by requiring micropayments/staking to sending messages (see Nostr or Sphinx)
Incentivizing Public Goods: Imagine if Waze could pay people. Or if Twitter/Reddit/spin the wheel could directly incentivize behavior that makes the platform better? Instead of likes you can get paid directly. Gamechanger.
Final Thoughts on Lightning: There are many more business models that haven’t even been imagined yet. That’s why this is on the list.
The Lightning Network built on Bitcoin delivers on the promises of crypto without the ponzi schemes. More importantly, it delivers on the promises of the internet: a global connected economy that empowers individuals with knowledge and opportunities.
Trend 2 - Generative AI
Still can’t believe this was made by AI.
I know AI in general is a big fad right now but I’ll try to give a focused and unique take.
The entire internet is driven by Google indexing their content. With generative AI things are going to ratchet up another degree.
The internet is going to be flooded with content. So it’s quickly going to become a question of quality over quantity.
Prompt engineering skill is going to be what determines who wins and who loses.
Any business that can facilitate superior prompt engineering with education, resources or yes even AI to feed better prompts in is going to have a big advantage.
The recipients of the new fangled generative AI will have a massive advantage. It will be like having the best Substack Writer or best podcaster out there working on your payroll for a fraction of what it would cost to hire an intern.
Trend 3 - Transportation Tech (or Any Industrial Tech)
I am a bit biased here. As alluded to in this post, I am actively working in transportation tech.
I think hard times are ahead of us. My macro expectation is that commodity prices are going to go way up and inflation is going to be persistent and devastating. With that, efficiency is going to be paramount. That is a big honeypot for all industrial productivity technologies.
I just got back from touring one of the largest ports in the United States. I saw so much waste and inefficiency it was like I was watching the inflation rate increase in realtime. My partner in the space told me it takes 30 people to do the same work 12 people used to do 10 years ago.
The problem is not work ethic. These are really hard working blue collar people. It really comes down to one thing: working smarter. Technology is the only way.
Nothing could have made me more bullish on the work I’m doing in this area.
Much of the tech landscape is fixated on frivolous hypotheticals. There are huge opportunities on productivity gains from technology *in the real world*.
Conclusion
There are decades where nothing happens and there are years where decades happen.
As the chaos in the world seems to steepen, the payouts for these opportunities also steepen. As a TLDR:
Total Business Model Facelifts Built on Sound Money with Bitcoin Lightning
Generative AI Will Be a Race for Quantity Then Quality. Winners Goes to Best Prompt Engineering Pipelines.
Massive Inflation and Commodity Price Hikes Will Fuel Productivity Tech in Industry
Unique post but definitely giving me some ideas. Thanks BTL